The July 15th
first round balloting in Congo’s legislative elections, won’t be an ordinary
election. It won’t also be an election that will confirm the country as acreage
of multiparty democracy within the sub region and the continent at large. And concerning elections and multiparty democracy,
Congo has held several elections and if the number of elections held in any
given country were a benchmark for it democratic health, then Congo would be
ruled hale and hearty, democratic wise. Interestingly or not, there are other
parameters needed in the evaluation of the democratic credentials of a country.
In that wise, Congo can’t pride itself to be a paragon of democracy. However,
what Congo can pride itself in is that, she is a country that is on the path of
democratization and is in need of help and perfections. Elections or electoral
periods in every country are a feverish moment.
It is a moment when candidates and their political parties do prepare to
flex their muscles ideologically with those having opposing or contradictory
views. It is also the finest moment for the press and also for businessmen and women, who are
in the business of printing, fabrication of tee shirts and other campaign paraphernalia.
But in Congo, electoral periods are also periods of uncertainties.
Vital elections
For most civil wars that have taken place in
this country, has their root cause in the way that elections were organized or the
way that the results went. It explains partly why, the July 15th elections,
whose campaigns were officially launched on July 1st won’t be an
ordinary legislative elections. There are several reasons why this year’s
legislative elections are vital. The first reason is found in the editorial of
the tri-weekly newspaper La Semaine Africaine N* 3203 of June
26th 2012. The editorialist wrote that: ‘’the legislative elections that
will take place on the 15th of July will be the 3rd post
conflict legislative elections to be held in Congo’’. And the editorialist
continues: ‘’in reality, since the sovereign national conference was held in
Congo in 1991, a total of five elections have taken place in the country, precisely
in 1992,1994,2002,2007 and now 2012.’’ The editorialist concludes: ‘’ Congolese
will be called for the fifth time to exercise their civic duty, which is to
freely elect their representative into the lower chambers of the Congolese
parliament’’.[i]
The second other reason why these legislative elections are important is
because, it will determine depending on the tendency that will dominate the
parliament, the democratic future and also the political and economic stability
of the country.
Ideological war
For as at
now, there are two schools of thought at war ideologically in Congo. The first
are those who want to change the current constitution of January 2002, while
there is a second group that wants to maintain the current constitution. The
first group argues that, the current constitution was necessary because, Congo came
newly out of a brief but brutal civil war. Hence, the 20th January 2002
constitution gave overwhelming powers to the executive. They add that, even
though they want the current constitution to be changed, it is far better than
the 1992 constitution, that to them, was a recipe for chaos. According to those
who want a constitutional change, the 1992 constitution, was a kind of
geo-ethnic constitution, which wanted that, if a president was from the north,
the prime minister must come from the south.
In listening to the first group or the group that wants to change the
current constitution, it becomes evident that, the current constitution, which
has the merit to have kept the country quiet for more than 15 years, should be
changed. Why?
It should
be changed, they claim, to make way for a new constitution that is in uniformity
with the current dispensation. It sounds logical, but as the saying goes: ‘’there
is no smoke without fire.’’ But those in the second group, the group that do
not want a constitutional change, are aware of the limitations of the current
constitution. However, they argue that, they want it to be maintained because
of two reasons. First, it protects
democracy and second, it also guarantees alternation at the summit of the
country. The second group also argues
that, whatever the apparent limitations of the 2002 constitution, it nonetheless
assures and consolidates democracy via two important clauses that are: age
limit and two term mandates of 7 years, each, that can’t be renewed. The other
reason why the second group doesn’t want the constitution to be changed is
that, they are of the opinion that, those
gunning for constitutional change are hiding behind it apparent limitations, to
push forward the secret agenda of president Denis Sassou Nguesso, who may want to elongate his stay in power pass 2016. The first
and the second groups latter mentioned are the most vocal in the ideological
battle currently being fought in Congo. But there is a third group that is not
militant. This group wants to maintain the current constitution, but they will
like to see some modifications carried out. They would like to see the
modification of clauses such as those on age limits and the two term mandate
limitations.
Suspicions and speculations
The real motives
or where the president of the republic stands on the ideological battle presently
going on in Congo, breeds wild suspicions and speculations. And these suspicions
and speculations have been sustained by the way things have been managed within
the ruling Congolese Workers Party or Parti Congolais du Travail (PCT). Prior
to selecting candidates that will represent the ruling party in July’s
legislative elections; the ruling party had agreed and publicized that,
primaries will be conducted within, in order to have candidates that are truly
representative of their various constituencies. It was a way to show Congolese and
the world that, the ruling party is now resolutely modern and democratic.
Unfortunately, the strategy that was meant to show to Congolese and the world
that the former Marxist party had changed from it dictatorial past, never took
place. The ruling party went back full throttle to it old ways of selecting
candidates that will represent her. And following the change of method, an
insider who craves for anonymity confided to me that, the ruling party was
agonizing and on the verge of implosion.
Why?
According to the same insider, the ruling PCT is now controlled by one man,
Michel Ngakala. Mr. Ngakala is the organizing secretary of the ruling party.
And Mr. Ngakala, it is rumored, is directly controlled by President Denis
Sassou Nguesso, who is the chair of the political-bureau of the ruling party. The political bureau is the highest decision
making body of the ruling party. Suspicions
and speculations are also bred by the way PCT candidates were selected as
standard bearer of the party in the July 15th elections. It is claimed that, most of the flag bearers
of the ruling party got their ticket to represent the ruling party in July’s elections
using opaque methods and not through democratic norms as was originally
marketed. Those who got selected as flag
bearers of the ruling party, got their nomination either because they were
supported by Denis Christel Nguesso, who is one of the many sons of the
president of the Republic or paid their way with the lump sum of cfa francs 15
million to Michel Ngakala and Pierre Ngolo. The first is the organizing
secretary of the ruling party while the second is the secretary general of the
same formation. Militants of the ruling party who could not get the chaperoning
of Denis Christel Nguesso or could not bribe their way were not designated.
Disappointment and frustration
Besides
alienating bona fide militants, the ruling party has an axe to grind with its
allies in the majority as well as in the opposition, who are accusing her (PCT)
of not respecting contracts or agreements signed between her and its allies. René Serge Blanchard Oba, chair of a
party called Movement for Solidarity and Development or in French, Movement
pour la Solidarite et le Developpement, who is a long time ally of the
ruling party was shocked discover that, the ruling party has decided to
designate Mrs. Claudia Leboumba Sassou
Nguesso Ikia as his opponent in the Talangai 3 electoral constituency. A
decision that made Mr. Rene Serge Blanchard Oba to declare in the daily Les Dépêches
de Brazzaville that: ‘’the ruling party must learn to honor its agreement
signed with its allies’’.[ii] Mr. Oba
and his MSD Party are not the only ones frustrated. The same feelings animates
some opposition political formations, in particular all those who took part at
the Ewo political meeting, which took place in December 2011. The said Ewo reunion
was held to prepare the ground work for free and fair legislative elections.
For the government is mindful of the fact that, elections have always been the
root cause of conflicts in the country.
And history
is on the side of the government, for in 1959, Congo’s first civil war that was
also its first tribal war, was sparked
because electoral results were disputed between Jacques Opangult’s Movement
Sociale Africaine (MSA) and Fulbert Youlou’s Union pour la Democracie et le Developpement
Intergrale de L’afrique(UDDIA). Furthermore
the successive civil wars in Congo which took place in 1993, 1997 and 1998
erupted not because of electoral results but rather on the difference of
interpretations of article 75 of the 1992 constitution. But all the same, the fulcrum of the battle
was elections, for there was a change of alliance in parliament between the UPADS,
PCT and MCDDI. It was a kind of manage a trios that was bound to ignite
trouble for the country. Therefore, the Ewo political come together that saw
the participation of civil society organizations, religious bodies,
representatives of the diplomatic corp., major political parties of the
majority as well as those of the opposition such as Movement Congolais pour la
Democracie et le Developpement Intergrale (MCDDI), Ressemblement pour la
Democracie et le Developpement (RDD), Union pan Africaine pour Democracie Sociale
(UPADS) and UDR Mwinda are all today disappointed.
Feeling of marginalization
These political
parties are disappointed because almost all propositions made at the Ewo conference,
that were meant to contribute in organizing peaceful and credible legislative elections have been ignored by the government. An attitude
that prompted the weekly newspaper Epanza Makita to title the cover of one
of its publication: ‘’Ewo resolutions violated by the government.’’[iii] The other source of frustration is that,
within the ruling party, rising stars such as Philippe Mvouo, Marcel Bani, Henri Djoumbo, Alain Akouala and Bienvenu Okiemi to name just these few,
have a feeling of having been marginalized or sidelined by the twosome of Michel Ngakala and Pierre Ngolo.[iv] It has
to be pointed out that, Congo’s ruling party has an effective grip on the
country politically and economically. Thus the way that the ruling party
behaves internally determines how the country is governed. It may partly explain
why the way that the internal politics of the ruling party has been managed
recently, has become fodder for all kinds of suspicions and speculations. And one
that is making round currently in Brazzaville and around the country is that
President Denis Sassou Nguesso wants his son Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso to succeed him in 2016.
It might
not be true. But when a number of party
cadres are marginalized or have a feeling of being sidelined and coupled with
the fact that last year, President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s son Christel, was
promoted into the political-bureau of the ruling party and has been designated
by the ruling party as the lone parliamentary candidate for the lone seat of
Oyo, those acts gives credence to speculators. And following all what has been going on
within the ruling party, La Voix du Peuple, a privately owned
newspaper did title: ‘’Has Sassou Nguesso confirms Christel as his successor?’’[v] One thing
is clear; whatever course the ruling party takes, the interest of the country
must be their principal preoccupation. For no matter how powerful those ruling
the ruling party are, time and nature is gradually taking its toll on them and
thus their ability and capacity to govern is dwindling. Sadly the ruling party’s
elite have not prepared a new breed to succeed them, beside their own children,
close family relatives and friends of the president. On a whole, the ruling
party has quantity or numbers behind her but lacks quality ideologues and strategists,
thus even if its and its allies do win a
majority in the new assembly, their supposed plans to change the constitution might not work out smoothly. Because needs to have capable cadres who will
be ready debate and convince Congolese that, the constitution has to be
changed.
Harbinger for conflict
For as
things stand, any planned constitutional change is a harbinger for conflict
that will destroy the economic and political achievement realized by the
current government. Hence 2016 an uncertain horizon for Congo Brazzaville,
because there are several pretenders to the throne and to complicate things
within ruling party and family a deadly race has been open. Furthermore the
March 4th 2012 explosions have also created an active volcano, whose
magma if it explodes, will consume everything on its passage. For the
government has inadvertently opened two fronts since the explosions. The first
is an internal battle within the ruling family and second is tribal. For most
of those arrested on suspicions that they took part in the explosions are from
the Teke ethnic group, which is the largest in the country but albeit close to
the ruling Mbouchi tribe. The intriguing mix in the possible
confrontation to succeed the president come 2016 is that, it might be fought
not with known protagonists but with a new one that is close. In other words it
would no longer be a battle between the north and the south but an intra
northern battle that will be deadly. But who is to be blamed? No one else, but
the ones who are presently ruling the country.
The whipping boy
According to
an insider, the man who bears the responsibility in case things fall apart for
the ruling party and the family today is Aime
Emmanuel Yoka. Mr. Yoka is the current minister of state minister justice
and keeper of the seals of Congo. He is also the uncle of the president and the
architect of the January 20th 2002 constitution. For he presided
over a commission that wrote a constitution tailored to suit Denis Sassou
Nguesso. The insider goes on: ‘’the idea was to sideline potential rivals of
the president such as Bernard Kolelas,
Tchystere Tchikaya and Andre Milongo
who are all dead at present. It explains why in the 2002 constitution clauses
such as age limits and limitation of two presidential mandates of 7 years each
were included’’. And the insider concludes that: ‘’ who the hell asked Aime Emmanuel Yoka to
include in the 2002 constitution marketed as modern and democratic, all the subterfuges
of age limits and term limitations? He did it to please the world that never
asked to be pleased by Congolese or their government that won the 1997 civil war.
The reality is that, the January 20th constitution had nothing democratic in it, but the true reasons why it was written the way it was written, has now caught up with President Denis Sassou Nguesso’’. For in 2016 the president would logical be out of contest because of age limitation and the two terms mandate limitation. That is why these legislative elections whose campaigns began officially on the 1st of July 2012 would not an ordinary one. It might renew the composition of the lower chambers and the majority shall decide whether Congo remains stable or inflames. Be that as it may, there are still some Congolese who want the current constitution to be changed. One of such is Alain Akouala Atypo. He is an advocate for the return of the 1992 constitution but omitting article 75 that to him is potential recipe for trouble.
The reality is that, the January 20th constitution had nothing democratic in it, but the true reasons why it was written the way it was written, has now caught up with President Denis Sassou Nguesso’’. For in 2016 the president would logical be out of contest because of age limitation and the two terms mandate limitation. That is why these legislative elections whose campaigns began officially on the 1st of July 2012 would not an ordinary one. It might renew the composition of the lower chambers and the majority shall decide whether Congo remains stable or inflames. Be that as it may, there are still some Congolese who want the current constitution to be changed. One of such is Alain Akouala Atypo. He is an advocate for the return of the 1992 constitution but omitting article 75 that to him is potential recipe for trouble.
[i] Editorial of La Semaine Africaine*3208 of
Tuesday June 26th 2012 written by Joachim Mbanza, pages 1&5
[ii] Les Dépêches de Brazzaville
N* 1487 of Wednesday May 23rd 2012(Rene serge Blanchard Oba invite
le PCT a ternir parole) pages 1 & 3
[iii] Epanza Makita N* 118 of June 13th
2012 pages 3
[iv][iv] Le Trottoir N* 68 OF June 2012 (Michel Ngakala
et Pierre Ngolo, Tortionnaires des élites montantes) pages 3
[v] La Voix du Peuple N*21 of Thursday May 31st of
2012( Sassou Nguesso confirms son successeur Christel Sassou Nguesso ) pages 6
